ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION TWELVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122015 200 AM PDT TUE AUG 25 2015 The depression's cloud pattern has not changed much during the last several hours. Deep convection remains mainly confined to the western portion of the circulation due to southeasterly wind shear. Satellite intensity estimates from TAFB, SAB, and CIMSS at the University of Wisconsin all support maintaining the initial wind speed at 30 kt. The shear currently affecting the cyclone is expected to lessen later today and it should be relatively light for the next few days. In addition, sea surface temperatures along the expected track are between 28-29 deg C, which are favorable for intensification. Therefore, steady strengthening seems likely during the next 3 to 4 days. The global models show an increase in southwesterly shear by the end of the forecast period, and that should cause the intensity of the system to level off. The GFDL and HWRF models are the most aggressive bringing this system to hurricane strength in a couple of days with continued strengthening thereafter. Conversely, the SHIPS and LGEM models show much less strengthening. Given the expected conducive environmental conditions, the NHC intensity forecast is increased a little from the previous one and is good agreement with the intensity model consensus. The cyclone is moving slowly westward, 275/4 kt. A general westward motion with an increase in forward speed is expected during the next day or so while mid-level ridging builds to the north and northeast of the system. After that time, a west-northwestward to northwestward motion is predicted due to a large-scale trough eroding the western periphery of the ridge. The NHC track forecast is nudged to the left of the previous one and is close to the various consensus aids. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 25/0900Z 13.2N 131.7W 30 KT 35 MPH 12H 25/1800Z 13.0N 132.4W 35 KT 40 MPH 24H 26/0600Z 12.8N 133.6W 40 KT 45 MPH 36H 26/1800Z 13.0N 135.1W 45 KT 50 MPH 48H 27/0600Z 13.6N 137.0W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 28/0600Z 15.3N 140.9W 65 KT 75 MPH 96H 29/0600Z 16.8N 144.4W 65 KT 75 MPH 120H 30/0600Z 18.5N 147.4W 60 KT 70 MPH $$ Forecaster Cangialosi NNNN
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