Tropical Storm POLO
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TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014
200 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014
After an impressive burst of deep convection, strong easterly shear
has pushed the thunderstorm activity well west of the low-level
center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that the
maximum winds were still near 35 kt. Since the shear is not
expected to abate much over the next day or two, and the
thermodynamic environment is expected to gradually become less
favorable, weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is
similar to the previous one and is a blend of the latest
Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Polo should degenerate into a
remnant low within a couple of days.
Based on some microwave imagery and the scatterometer data, the
center is located slightly north of the previous track. The
initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. A
mid-level ridge to the north of Polo is expected to cause the
cyclone to turn westward within the next day or so. Thereafter, the
weakening remnant low should turn west-southwestward and then
southwestward within the shallow-layer northeasterly flow. The
official forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF
predictions.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 21/2100Z 22.3N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH
12H 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH
24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH
36H 23/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
48H 23/1800Z 21.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
72H 24/1800Z 20.6N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED
$$
Forecaster Pasch
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