ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM POLO DISCUSSION NUMBER 23 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172014 200 PM PDT SUN SEP 21 2014 After an impressive burst of deep convection, strong easterly shear has pushed the thunderstorm activity well west of the low-level center. An ASCAT overpass from a few hours ago indicated that the maximum winds were still near 35 kt. Since the shear is not expected to abate much over the next day or two, and the thermodynamic environment is expected to gradually become less favorable, weakening is likely. The official intensity forecast is similar to the previous one and is a blend of the latest Decay-SHIPS and LGEM guidance. Polo should degenerate into a remnant low within a couple of days. Based on some microwave imagery and the scatterometer data, the center is located slightly north of the previous track. The initial motion estimate remains west-northwestward, or 290/7 kt. A mid-level ridge to the north of Polo is expected to cause the cyclone to turn westward within the next day or so. Thereafter, the weakening remnant low should turn west-southwestward and then southwestward within the shallow-layer northeasterly flow. The official forecast is close to a consensus of the GFS and ECMWF predictions. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 21/2100Z 22.3N 112.1W 35 KT 40 MPH 12H 22/0600Z 22.5N 113.1W 30 KT 35 MPH 24H 22/1800Z 22.5N 114.4W 30 KT 35 MPH 36H 23/0600Z 22.1N 115.3W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 48H 23/1800Z 21.7N 116.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 72H 24/1800Z 20.6N 117.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 96H 25/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ Forecaster Pasch NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 31-Dec-2014 12:09:56 UTC