Hurricane EMILIA
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HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012
200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012
THE COOL WATERS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT EMILIA. THE DEEP
CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT...
RESULTING IN LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN
LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ATTEMPTS FOR THE
CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR
THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMILIA COULD BECOME
A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR DAYS OR EARLIER.
EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE
SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...IS
FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WOULD
FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO IMPORTANT
CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON
THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY THE END OF THE
FORECAST PERIOD...EMILIA WILL LIKELY BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY
THE TRADE WINDS.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 122.4W 90 KT 105 MPH
12H 13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
24H 13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH
36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W 60 KT 70 MPH
48H 14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH
72H 15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH
96H 16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
120H 17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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