ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE EMILIA DISCUSSION NUMBER 21 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052012 200 PM PDT THU JUL 12 2012 THE COOL WATERS HAVE FINALLY BEGUN TO AFFECT EMILIA. THE DEEP CONVECTION HAS DIMINISHED...AND THE EYE HAS BECOME LESS DISTINCT... RESULTING IN LOWER DVORAK T-NUMBERS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 90 KNOTS. ALTHOUGH THERE WILL BE SOME ATTEMPTS FOR THE CONVECTION TO REDEVELOP INTERMITTENTLY...THE OVERALL TREND IS FOR THE HURRICANE TO WEAKEN OVER THE NEXT FEW DAYS. EMILIA COULD BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN FOUR DAYS OR EARLIER. EMILIA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270 DEGREES AT 10 KNOTS. THE SUBTROPICAL HIGH...WHICH IS FORCING THE CYCLONE WESTWARD...IS FORECAST TO REMAIN ANCHORED NORTH OF EMILIA. THIS PATTERN WOULD FAVOR A CONTINUATION OF A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK WITH NO IMPORTANT CHANGES IN FORWARD SPEED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CONTINUES TO BE ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. BY THE END OF THE FORECAST PERIOD...EMILIA WILL LIKELY BE A SHALLOW SYSTEM STEERED BY THE TRADE WINDS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 12/2100Z 15.1N 122.4W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 13/0600Z 15.1N 124.0W 80 KT 90 MPH 24H 13/1800Z 15.4N 126.3W 70 KT 80 MPH 36H 14/0600Z 15.6N 128.7W 60 KT 70 MPH 48H 14/1800Z 15.9N 131.0W 45 KT 50 MPH 72H 15/1800Z 16.0N 136.5W 35 KT 40 MPH 96H 16/1800Z 16.0N 141.0W 25 KT 30 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW 120H 17/1800Z 16.0N 145.0W 20 KT 25 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:18 UTC