Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane DANIEL


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
 
HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL       EP042012
800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012
 
DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMING
AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY.  DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT AND 90 KT AT 00 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB...
RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ABOUT
105 KT.  GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS
CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 90 KT.
 
DANIEL WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12
HOURS...SO THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND
SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY.  THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES A
GRADUAL DECAY IN WINDS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST
2 DAYS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5.  THE NEW INTENSITY
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE DANIEL HAS
STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10 KT.  DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE
WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH
BUILDS WESTWARD.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE.  ALSO...IN
DIRECT CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW ON THE
NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE.  GIVEN THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE
MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS
ONE THROUGH DAY 4.

 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INIT  08/0300Z 14.9N 121.2W   90 KT 105 MPH
 12H  08/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W   90 KT 105 MPH
 24H  09/0000Z 15.7N 125.6W   80 KT  90 MPH
 36H  09/1200Z 16.1N 128.3W   65 KT  75 MPH
 48H  10/0000Z 16.3N 131.3W   55 KT  65 MPH
 72H  11/0000Z 16.5N 137.5W   40 KT  45 MPH
 96H  12/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W   35 KT  40 MPH
120H  13/0000Z 16.0N 150.0W   30 KT  35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER BERG
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC