ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE DANIEL DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042012 800 PM PDT SAT JUL 07 2012 DANIEL HAS CONTINUED TO STRENGTHEN...WITH A WELL-DEFINED EYE FORMING AROUND THE TIME OF THE LAST ADVISORY. DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE 77 KT AND 90 KT AT 00 UTC FROM TAFB AND SAB... RESPECTIVELY...AND THE LATEST ADT ESTIMATE FROM UW-CIMSS IS ABOUT 105 KT. GIVEN THE WIDE RANGE OF ESTIMATES...THE INTENSITY IS CONSERVATIVELY RAISED TO 90 KT. DANIEL WILL BE CROSSING THE 26C ISOTHERM WITHIN THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS...SO THE HURRICANE IS LIKELY NEAR ITS PEAK INTENSITY AND SHOULD BEGIN TO WEAKEN ON SUNDAY. THE NHC FORECAST ASSUMES A GRADUAL DECAY IN WINDS...FOLLOWING THE SHIPS MODEL DURING THE FIRST 2 DAYS AND THE LGEM GUIDANCE ON DAYS 3 THROUGH 5. THE NEW INTENSITY FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE PREVIOUS ONE SINCE DANIEL HAS STRENGTHENED A LITTLE MORE THAN EXPECTED. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 275/10 KT. DANIEL SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE WESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 5 DAYS AS A MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO ITS NORTH BUILDS WESTWARD. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE UKMET...THE TRACK GUIDANCE HAS SHIFTED TO THE NORTH ON THIS CYCLE...LEAVING THE PREVIOUS FORECAST ON THE SOUTHERN EDGE OF THE ENVELOPE. ALSO...IN DIRECT CONTRAST TO PREVIOUS DAYS...THE ECMWF MODEL IS NOW ON THE NORTHERN SIDE OF THE GUIDANCE. GIVEN THE OVERALL SHIFT IN THE MODELS...THE NHC FORECAST IS ADJUSTED A BIT NORTH OF THE PREVIOUS ONE THROUGH DAY 4. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INIT 08/0300Z 14.9N 121.2W 90 KT 105 MPH 12H 08/1200Z 15.3N 123.0W 90 KT 105 MPH 24H 09/0000Z 15.7N 125.6W 80 KT 90 MPH 36H 09/1200Z 16.1N 128.3W 65 KT 75 MPH 48H 10/0000Z 16.3N 131.3W 55 KT 65 MPH 72H 11/0000Z 16.5N 137.5W 40 KT 45 MPH 96H 12/0000Z 16.5N 144.0W 35 KT 40 MPH 120H 13/0000Z 16.0N 150.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...POST-TROP/REMNT LOW $$ FORECASTER BERG NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 31-Dec-2012 12:10:15 UTC