Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane GUILLERMO


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102009
200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009

CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS
DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING
AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE.  THE UPPER
OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST
TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS.  A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES
SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL
INTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT.  SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE
DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO
AFFECT THE SYSTEM.  AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN
DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY
SHEAR.  THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND
LGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS.
 
THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH
PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM.  A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND
SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD.  THE LARGE-SCALE AND
HURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED.  THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W    85 KT
 12HR VT     15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W    80 KT
 24HR VT     15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W    70 KT
 36HR VT     16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W    60 KT
 48HR VT     16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W    55 KT
 72HR VT     17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W    45 KT
 96HR VT     18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W    40 KT
120HR VT     19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC