ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE GUILLERMO DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102009 200 PM PDT FRI AUG 14 2009 CONVENTIONAL AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATE THAT GUILLERMO HAS DEVELOPED A RAGGED EYE WITH AN IMPRESSIVE BANDING FEATURE WRAPPING AROUND THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN PORTIONS OF THE CYCLONE. THE UPPER OUTFLOW PATTERN APPEARS TO HAVE BECOME MORE DIFFLUENT OVER THE WEST TO NORTHWEST QUADRANTS. A COMPROMISE OF DVORAK TECHNIQUE ESTIMATES SUGGEST THAT INTENSITY HAS INCREASED TO 85 KT...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY FOLLOWS SUIT. SLIGHT INTENSITY FLUCTUATIONS ARE POSSIBLE DURING THE NEXT 12-18 HOURS BEFORE THE COOLER WATER BEGINS TO AFFECT THE SYSTEM. AFTERWARD...GUILLERMO SHOULD BEGIN TO SPIN DOWN DUE TO THE AFOREMENTIONED COOLER SSTS AND INCREASING SOUTHWESTERLY SHEAR. THE INTENSITY FORECAST REMAINS UNCHANGED FROM THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY BEYOND THE 24 HOUR...WHICH IS AGAIN CLOSE TO THE SHIPS AND LGEM DYNAMICAL MODELS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 280/13...WITHIN THE DEEP-LAYER FLOW OF A HIGH PRESSURE RIDGE TO THE NORTH OF THE SYSTEM. A GRADUAL TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED AROUND THE 36 HOUR TIME FRAME...AND SHOULD CONTINUE THROUGH THE REMAINING PERIOD. THE LARGE-SCALE AND HURRICANE MODELS REMAIN CONSISTENT AND TIGHTLY CLUSTERED. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST FOLLOWS CLOSELY TO A BLEND OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS FOLLOWS THE PREVIOUS TRACK FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 14/2100Z 17.9N 128.9W 85 KT 12HR VT 15/0600Z 18.3N 130.9W 80 KT 24HR VT 15/1800Z 18.8N 133.6W 70 KT 36HR VT 16/0600Z 19.4N 136.3W 60 KT 48HR VT 16/1800Z 20.0N 138.8W 55 KT 72HR VT 17/1800Z 21.5N 144.0W 45 KT 96HR VT 18/1800Z 23.0N 149.0W 40 KT 120HR VT 19/1800Z 24.5N 154.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:22 UTC