Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Depression FOUR-E


ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042009
800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009
 
THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AND DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH
TWO CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HOOKING BANDS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS
TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION
WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY
ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THIS
SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS AT LOW
LATITUDES...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN
ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD
GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE AS INDICATED IN THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE
DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GIVEN THE
CURRENT STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS COULD HAPPEN
EARLIER.
 
THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...OR 275 DEGREES
AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS.  THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD ALLOW
THE CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...BUT MOST OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS
PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...ON A GENERAL
WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE TRACK
GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE
FORECAST.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      10/1500Z 10.4N 112.8W    30 KT
 12HR VT     11/0000Z 10.5N 114.2W    35 KT
 24HR VT     11/1200Z 10.7N 116.4W    40 KT
 36HR VT     12/0000Z 10.8N 118.7W    45 KT
 48HR VT     12/1200Z 11.3N 121.0W    50 KT
 72HR VT     13/1200Z 12.0N 126.0W    60 KT
 96HR VT     14/1200Z 13.0N 131.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     15/1200Z 13.5N 136.0W    80 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC