ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042009 800 AM PDT FRI JUL 10 2009 THE DEPRESSION HAS A LARGE AND DISTINCT LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION WITH TWO CYCLONICALLY-CURVED HOOKING BANDS. HOWEVER...THE CENTER APPEARS TO BE LOCATED ON THE NORTHERN PORTION OF AN AREA OF CONVECTION WHICH IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP AT THIS TIME. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE. THIS SUPPORTS AN INITIAL INTENSITY OF 30 KT. THE DEPRESSION IS AT LOW LATITUDES...AND IS FORECAST TO REMAIN EMBEDDED WITHIN AN ENVIRONMENT OF LIGHT SHEAR AND WARM SSTS...SO THE CYCLONE SHOULD GRADUALLY INTENSIFY AND BECOME A HURRICANE AS INDICATED IN THE OFFICIAL FORECAST. MOST OF THE AVAILABLE GUIDANCE BRINGS THE DEPRESSION TO HURRICANE STATUS BEYOND 3 DAYS. HOWEVER..GIVEN THE CURRENT STRUCTURE AND FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENT...THIS COULD HAPPEN EARLIER. THE DEPRESSION IS MOVING WESTWARD A LITTLE FASTER...OR 275 DEGREES AT ABOUT 10 KNOTS. THERE IS CURRENTLY A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE NORTHWEST OF THE DEPRESSION...WHICH COULD ALLOW THE CYCLONE TO MOVE A LITTLE NORTH OF DUE WEST...BUT MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS FORECAST A WESTWARD EXPANSION OF THE RIDGE. THIS PATTERN SHOULD KEEP THE CYCLONE SOUTH OF THE RIDGE...ON A GENERAL WEST TO WEST-NORTHWEST TRACK THROUGH FIVE DAYS. IN FACT...THE TRACK GUIDANCE IS TIGHTLY CLUSTERED INCREASING THE CONFIDENCE IN THE FORECAST. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 10/1500Z 10.4N 112.8W 30 KT 12HR VT 11/0000Z 10.5N 114.2W 35 KT 24HR VT 11/1200Z 10.7N 116.4W 40 KT 36HR VT 12/0000Z 10.8N 118.7W 45 KT 48HR VT 12/1200Z 11.3N 121.0W 50 KT 72HR VT 13/1200Z 12.0N 126.0W 60 KT 96HR VT 14/1200Z 13.0N 131.0W 70 KT 120HR VT 15/1200Z 13.5N 136.0W 80 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Thursday, 31-Dec-2009 12:09:17 UTC