Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane FAUSTO


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS CAME IN AT A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
THUS 75 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE
12 UTC HAVE DEPICTED A MORE WELL-DEFINED EYE...SO THIS ANALYSIS
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW.

THE TRACK OF FAUSTO IS 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE AND A RATHER SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS
MOTION HAS NOT BEEN WELL-DEPICTED BY THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS
LATELY...WHICH HAVE BEEN CALLING PREMATURELY FOR A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BEGIN SPINNING DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE AT ABOUT FAUSTO'S LONGITUDE.  THUS THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW AT THAT TIME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE HWRF...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWEST...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND SIMILAR AFTER THAT.

THE HURRICANE IS OVER WATERS OF ONLY 26C CURRENTLY EVEN THOUGH THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WATER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY COOL MAKING THE
THERMODYNAMICS QUITE HOSTILE...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STAY
CONDUCIVE.  A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AND BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS AND IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N 114.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N 116.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 118.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 120.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:36 UTC