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Hurricane FAUSTO (Text)

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HURRICANE FAUSTO DISCUSSION NUMBER  18
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072008
800 AM PDT SUN JUL 20 2008
 
FAUSTO CONTINUES TO SHOW A RAGGED EYE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS CAME IN AT A CONSENSUS 4.5 FROM TAFB AND SAB AND
THUS 75 KT REMAINS THE INTENSITY.  INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SINCE
12 UTC HAVE DEPICTED A MORE WELL-DEFINED EYE...SO THIS ANALYSIS
MIGHT BE SLIGHTLY LOW.

THE TRACK OF FAUSTO IS 320 DEGREES AT 11 KT AS THE SYSTEM IS BEING
STEERED BY A COMBINATION OF A DEEP-LAYER RIDGE NORTHEAST OF THE
CYCLONE AND A RATHER SHARP TROUGH JUST WEST OF CALIFORNIA.  THIS
MOTION HAS NOT BEEN WELL-DEPICTED BY THE TRACK MODEL CONSENSUS
LATELY...WHICH HAVE BEEN CALLING PREMATURELY FOR A TURN BACK TOWARD
THE WEST-NORTHWEST.  IN ABOUT 36 TO 48 HOURS...THE HURRICANE SHOULD
BEGIN SPINNING DOWN OVER COOLER WATERS AT THE SAME TIME THAT THE
SHORT-WAVE TROUGH WILL BE AT ABOUT FAUSTO'S LONGITUDE.  THUS THE
CYCLONE SHOULD BEND BACK TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE LOWER-LEVEL
FLOW AT THAT TIME.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS BASED UPON THE CONSENSUS
OF THE DYNAMICAL MODELS MINUS THE HWRF...WHICH TAKES THE SYSTEM TOO
FAR NORTH INTO THE LOW-LEVEL RIDGE.  THE OFFICIAL TRACK IS SLIGHTLY
FASTER AND TO THE RIGHT...OR NORTHWEST...OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST
AT 12 TO 36 HOURS AND SIMILAR AFTER THAT.

THE HURRICANE IS OVER WATERS OF ONLY 26C CURRENTLY EVEN THOUGH THE
VERTICAL SHEAR IS QUITE LOW.  OVER THE NEXT TWO DAYS...THE WATER
TEMPERATURES UNDER THE CYCLONE WILL QUICKLY COOL MAKING THE
THERMODYNAMICS QUITE HOSTILE...WHILE THE VERTICAL SHEAR SHOULD STAY
CONDUCIVE.  A STEADY WEAKENING IS INDICATED FOR THE NEXT THREE DAYS
AND BY DAY 4 THE SYSTEM SHOULD BE A REMNANT LOW.  THE INTENSITY
FORECAST IS BASED UPON A BLEND OF THE LGEM AND GFDL MODELS AND IS
QUITE SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      20/1500Z 18.0N 112.5W    75 KT
 12HR VT     21/0000Z 19.2N 114.0W    70 KT
 24HR VT     21/1200Z 20.3N 116.1W    60 KT
 36HR VT     22/0000Z 21.0N 118.4W    50 KT
 48HR VT     22/1200Z 21.5N 120.4W    40 KT
 72HR VT     23/1200Z 22.0N 124.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     24/1200Z 22.5N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     25/1200Z 23.0N 131.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/KNABB
 
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