Hurricane ELIDA
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HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008
200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008
VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE
EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY...
T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE
T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED
UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS
COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON.
ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE
HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND
SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE
OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE.
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W 90 KT
12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W 80 KT
24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W 70 KT
36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 60 KT
48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 45 KT
72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 30 KT
96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW
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FORECASTER AVILA
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