ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE ELIDA DISCUSSION NUMBER 20 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP062008 200 PM PDT WED JUL 16 2008 VISIBLE SATELLITE IMAGES REVEAL THAT ELIDA HAS DEVELOPED AN EYE EMBEDDED WITHIN A ROUND CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CONSEQUENTLY... T-NUMBERS INCREASED TO 5.0 ON THE DVORAK SCALE WITH OBJECTIVE T-NUMBERS A LITTLE BIT HIGHER. INITIAL INTENSITY HAS BEEN ADJUSTED UPWARD TO 90 KNOTS. ELIDA IS VERY NEAR COOLER WATERS...SO THIS COULD BE THE PEAK INTENSITY OF THE CYCLONE. A GRADUAL WEAKENING IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN SOON. ELIDA IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT 12 KNOTS. THE HURRICANE CONTINUES TO MOVE SOUTH OF A STRONG EAST-WEST ORIENTED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS. THIS PATTERN IS FORECAST TO PERSIST AND SHOULD FORCE ELIDA ON A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK THROUGH 5 DAYS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS IN THE MIDDLE OF THE GUIDANCE ENVELOPE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 16/2100Z 17.0N 117.8W 90 KT 12HR VT 17/0600Z 17.3N 119.6W 80 KT 24HR VT 17/1800Z 17.7N 122.1W 70 KT 36HR VT 18/0600Z 18.0N 125.0W 60 KT 48HR VT 18/1800Z 18.0N 127.5W 45 KT 72HR VT 19/1800Z 18.0N 132.5W 30 KT 96HR VT 20/1800Z 18.0N 137.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 21/1800Z 18.0N 142.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:34 UTC