Tropical Storm BORIS

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TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER   5
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP022008
200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008
 
THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA
THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP
CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR
ALREADY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE.  THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT
CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS
MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER. IN
FACT...IT ASSUMES THAT BORIS HAS ALREADY PEAKED. IN ADDITION...MOST
OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DECOUPLING THE CYCLONE BY KEEPING THE
LOW-LEVEL PORTION MEANDERING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CONTINUES
WESTWARD. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED
BUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. 
 
BORIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES
AT 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY
AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVELS...A GENERAL WESTWARD
TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE
TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL GUIDANCE.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/0900Z 14.0N 112.1W    45 KT
 12HR VT     28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W    50 KT
 24HR VT     29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W    50 KT
 36HR VT     29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W    45 KT
 48HR VT     30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W    40 KT
 72HR VT     01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W    35 KT
 96HR VT     02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W    30 KT
120HR VT     03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
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