ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM BORIS DISCUSSION NUMBER 5 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP022008 200 AM PDT SAT JUN 28 2008 THERE ARE SOME INDICATIONS FROM SATELLITE IMAGERY AND MICROWAVE DATA THAT THE CENTER OF BORIS IS ON THE NORTHERN EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. THIS SUGGESTS THAT THERE IS SOME NORTHERLY SHEAR ALREADY AFFECTING THE CYCLONE. THE DVORAK T-NUMBERS HAVE NOT CHANGED SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS KEPT AT 45 KNOTS. THE SHIPS MODEL INDICATES THAT THE SHEAR SHOULD INCREASE FURTHER. IN FACT...IT ASSUMES THAT BORIS HAS ALREADY PEAKED. IN ADDITION...MOST OF THE GLOBAL MODELS ARE DECOUPLING THE CYCLONE BY KEEPING THE LOW-LEVEL PORTION MEANDERING WHILE THE MID-LEVEL CONTINUES WESTWARD. FOLLOWING CONTINUITY...SOME STRENGTHENING IS INDICATED BUT A LITTLE LOWER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST. BORIS APPEARS TO BE MOVING TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR 290 DEGREES AT 6 KNOTS. ASSUMING THAT THE CYCLONE DOES NOT WEAKEN SIGNIFICANTLY AND CONTINUES TO BE STEERED BY THE MID LEVELS...A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS FORECAST THROUGH FIVE DAYS. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH THE TROPICAL CYCLONE MODEL GUIDANCE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 28/0900Z 14.0N 112.1W 45 KT 12HR VT 28/1800Z 14.2N 113.2W 50 KT 24HR VT 29/0600Z 14.5N 115.0W 50 KT 36HR VT 29/1800Z 14.5N 116.5W 45 KT 48HR VT 30/0600Z 14.5N 118.0W 40 KT 72HR VT 01/0600Z 14.5N 120.5W 35 KT 96HR VT 02/0600Z 14.5N 123.5W 30 KT 120HR VT 03/0600Z 14.5N 126.5W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:30 UTC