Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane IKE


ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.  BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR.  GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE. 
 
IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 21.9N  68.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N  70.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  72.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.2N  75.4W   105 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  77.6W    95 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  84.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Tuesday, 21-Apr-2009 12:09:20 UTC