| HOME | ARCHIVES | FORECASTS | IMAGERY | ABOUT NHC | RECONNAISSANCE |

---

Hurricane IKE (Text)

ZCZC MIATCDAT4 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE IKE DISCUSSION NUMBER  22
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL092008
1100 AM EDT SAT SEP 06 2008
 
IKE CONTINUES TO EXPERIENCE SOME NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR AND LATEST
DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES NOW SUGGEST ABOUT 95 KT.  GLOBAL MODELS
INDICATE THAT THE NORTHEASTERLY SHEAR WILL BEGIN TO RELAX LATER
TODAY...AND IKE IS NOW FORECAST TO TRACK SOUTH OF THE COOLER WATERS
UPWELLED BY HANNA.  SOME RESTRENGTHENING IS ANTICIPATED IN THE
SHORT-TERM AND IKE COULD REGAIN MAJOR HURRICANE STATUS BY TOMORROW.
IKE IS THEN EXPECTED TO MOVE OVER OR VERY CUBA DURING THE 36-72 HR
TIME FRAME WHICH SHOULD RESULT IN SOME WEAKENING.  THE DEGREE OF
WEAKENING WILL DEPEND LARGELY ON HOW CLOSE IKE TRACKS TO LAND.  BY
DAY 4...IKE IS FORECAST TO EMERGE BACK OVER OPEN WATERS IN THE
SOUTHEASTERN GULF OF MEXICO.  GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THE ENVIRONMENT
WILL BE FAVORABLE FOR STRENGTHENING AND THE OCEAN SHOULD BE PLENTY
WARM.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST THUS CALLS FOR IKE TO RESTRENGTHEN AT
96 AND 120 HR.  GIVEN THE EVOLVING ATMOSPHERIC ENVIRONMENT AND LAND
INTERACTIONS...THE INTENSITY FORECAST HAS LOWER THAN NORMAL
CONFIDENCE. 
 
IKE IS CURRENTLY BEING STEERED BY A LARGE MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
RIDGE OVER THE WESTERN ATLANTIC NEAR BERMUDA AND THE CYCLONE
CONTINUES ON A GENERAL WEST-SOUTHWESTWARD HEADING WITH AN INITIAL
MOTION ESTIMATE OF 255/15. THE RIDGE IS FORECAST TO SHIFT EASTWARD
DURING THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS ALLOWING IKE TO MAKE A TURN
WESTWARD. IN 3 TO 4 DAYS...A SHORTWAVE TROUGH MOVING OVER THE
EASTERN UNITED STATES IS EXPECTED TO CREATE A WEAKNESS TO THE NORTH
OF IKE RESULTING A TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST OR NORTHWEST.
THIS SHORTWAVE TROUGH WILL BE A CRITICAL PLAYER IN IKE'S EVENTUAL
TRACK AT THE EXTENDED RANGES. DYNAMICAL MODELS ARE SPLIT INTO TWO
CAMPS AT THIS TIME...WITH SOME MODELS SHOWING THE SHORTWAVE PASSING
SUFFICIENTLY FAR TO THE NORTH TO KEEP IKE MOVING
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD...WHILE OTHER MODELS SHOW IKE TURNING NORTHWARD
INTO THE WEAKNESS. IT IS WAY TOO EARLY TO COMMIT TO EITHER ONE OF
THESE EXTENDED RANGE SOLUTIONS...AND THUS THE NEW OFFICIAL FORECAST
IS VERY CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      06/1500Z 21.9N  68.8W    95 KT
 12HR VT     07/0000Z 21.4N  70.4W    95 KT
 24HR VT     07/1200Z 21.2N  72.9W   100 KT
 36HR VT     08/0000Z 21.2N  75.4W   105 KT
 48HR VT     08/1200Z 21.5N  77.6W    95 KT...INLAND
 72HR VT     09/1200Z 23.0N  81.5W    80 KT...INLAND
 96HR VT     10/1200Z 24.5N  84.0W    90 KT
120HR VT     11/1200Z 26.0N  86.0W   100 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER RHOME/BEVEN
 
NNNN