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Tropical Storm GIL


ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL CAA
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER   6...CORRECTED
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP102007
200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007

...CORRECTED STORM NAME DEAN REFERENCE IN PARAGRAPH ONE TO GIL
 
THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF
THE DEEP CONVECTION.  A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING
SUGGESTS THAT GIL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER
ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. 
ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER
THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A STABLE AIR
MASS.  THESE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BALANCE...AND LITTLE
OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL GIL MOVES OVER COOLER
WATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9.  THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY
STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN
NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS.  AFTER ABOUT 48
HOURS...GIL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND
A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN
BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATER AND THE
LOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 19.2N 114.3W    40 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 19.0N 115.9W    40 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 18.9N 118.0W    40 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 18.8N 122.3W    35 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W    30 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
120HR VT     04/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC