ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL CAA TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM GIL DISCUSSION NUMBER 6...CORRECTED NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP102007 200 PM PDT THU AUG 30 2007 ...CORRECTED STORM NAME DEAN REFERENCE IN PARAGRAPH ONE TO GIL THE CENTER OF GIL CONTINUES TO BE LOCATED NEAR THE NORTHEAST EDGE OF THE DEEP CONVECTION. A SCATTEROMETER PASS FROM 13Z THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT GIL MAY BE A LITTLE STRONGER THAN EARLIER ESTIMATED...AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS INCREASED TO 40 KT. ALTHOUGH THE CURRENT EASTERLY SHEAR IS FORECAST TO DIMINISH OVER THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS...GIL WILL BE MOVING THROUGH A STABLE AIR MASS. THESE EFFECTS ARE EXPECTED TO LARGELY BALANCE...AND LITTLE OVERALL CHANGE IN STRENGTH IS LIKELY UNTIL GIL MOVES OVER COOLER WATERS IN A COUPLE DAYS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 265/9. THE TRACK FORECAST IS RELATIVELY STRAIGHTFORWARD...WITH A STRONG MID-LEVEL RIDGE FORECAST TO REMAIN NORTH OF THE CYCLONE FOR THE NEXT COUPLE OF DAYS. AFTER ABOUT 48 HOURS...GIL WILL BE NEARING THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE RIDGE AND A TURN TO THE WEST-NORTHWEST IS EXPECTED...TO BE FOLLOWED BY A TURN BACK TO THE WEST AS THE CYCLONE DECAYS OVER COOLER WATER AND THE LOW-LEVEL STEERING DOMINATES. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 19.2N 114.3W 40 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 19.0N 115.9W 40 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 18.9N 118.0W 40 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 18.8N 120.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 18.8N 122.3W 35 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 19.5N 127.0W 30 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 20.0N 131.0W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 120HR VT 04/1800Z 20.0N 135.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:21:00 UTC