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Tropical Storm DALILA


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER  19
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP072007
800 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007
 
DALILA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF
THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC.  CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN
125 NMI OF THE CENTER...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE.
A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 40 KT OR
A BIT LOWER...WHILE THE ADT ANALYSIS GIVES ABOUT 45 KT.  THE
INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT.  DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE
DECAYING AS IT HEADS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IT MAY
BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HR.  THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH
SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF.
 
CURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT
BASED UPON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...TWO MICROWAVE PASSES
LAST NIGHT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURE THIS MORNING.  DALILA WILL
LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS IT
BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE
LOWER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  THE TRACK FORECAST UTILIZES THE
CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE.

HIGH SURF REPORTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET HIGHER THAN USUAL ALONG EXTREME
SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY. 
DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE DAY TODAY.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      26/1500Z 22.0N 114.0W    40 KT
 12HR VT     27/0000Z 22.6N 115.3W    35 KT
 24HR VT     27/1200Z 23.4N 116.9W    30 KT
 36HR VT     28/0000Z 24.0N 118.4W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     28/1200Z 24.5N 119.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     29/1200Z 25.0N 121.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     30/1200Z 25.0N 123.5W    20 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     31/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC