ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM DALILA DISCUSSION NUMBER 19 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP072007 800 AM PDT THU JUL 26 2007 DALILA IS SLOWLY WEAKENING AS IT MOVES TOWARD THE COLD WATERS OF THE NORTHEAST PACIFIC. CONVECTIVE BANDS ARE NOW LIMITED TO WITHIN 125 NMI OF THE CENTER...MAINLY ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE CYCLONE. A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS FROM TAFB AND SAB SUGGEST 40 KT OR A BIT LOWER...WHILE THE ADT ANALYSIS GIVES ABOUT 45 KT. THE INTENSITY IS ESTIMATED TO BE 40 KT. DALILA SHOULD CONTINUE DECAYING AS IT HEADS INTO A MORE STABLE ENVIRONMENT AND IT MAY BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN ABOUT 36 HR. THIS IS IN AGREEMENT WITH SHIPS...GFDL...AND HWRF. CURRENT MOTION OF THE CYCLONE IS AN UNCERTAIN 320 DEGREES AT 9 KT BASED UPON CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY...TWO MICROWAVE PASSES LAST NIGHT AND THE FIRST VISIBLE PICTURE THIS MORNING. DALILA WILL LIKELY TURN TOWARD THE WEST-NORTHWEST WITHIN THE NEXT DAY AS IT BECOMES STEERED BY THE EASTERLIES ON THE SOUTH SIDE OF THE LOWER-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE TRACK FORECAST UTILIZES THE CONSENSUS OF THE TIGHTLY PACKED GUIDANCE. HIGH SURF REPORTS OF 4 TO 5 FEET HIGHER THAN USUAL ALONG EXTREME SOUTHERN BAJA CALIFORNIA HAVE BEEN PROVIDED BY THE MEXICAN NAVY. DANGEROUS BREAKING WAVES ARE POSSIBLE THERE DURING THE DAY TODAY. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 26/1500Z 22.0N 114.0W 40 KT 12HR VT 27/0000Z 22.6N 115.3W 35 KT 24HR VT 27/1200Z 23.4N 116.9W 30 KT 36HR VT 28/0000Z 24.0N 118.4W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 28/1200Z 24.5N 119.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 29/1200Z 25.0N 121.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 30/1200Z 25.0N 123.5W 20 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 31/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER LANDSEA/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:59 UTC