Tropical Depression FIVE-E

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TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   4
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP052007
200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007

THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING.  DVORAK DATA T
NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION
THE SYSTEM BARELY CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE.  THE CENTER OF
THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY.  AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 0215 UTC QUIKSCAT
PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE SMALL AND THAT THE
MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT. 

THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER HOSTILE WITH
STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THEREFORE...IT IS
FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12-24 HOURS.  THE INITIAL
MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12 AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS
EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS.  SEVERAL OF THE
GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY THE
LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DURING THE NEXT 2-3
DAYS.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      15/0900Z 16.2N 118.6W    25 KT
 12HR VT     15/1800Z 16.5N 120.3W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 24HR VT     16/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 36HR VT     16/1800Z 16.5N 124.7W    25 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     17/0600Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BROWN
 
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