ZCZC MIATCDEP5 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FIVE-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 4 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP052007 200 AM PDT SUN JUL 15 2007 THE DEPRESSION CONTINUES TO STRUGGLE THIS MORNING. DVORAK DATA T NUMBERS HAVE DECREASED AND WITH THE LACK OF ORGANIZED CONVECTION THE SYSTEM BARELY CLASSIFIES AS A TROPICAL CYCLONE. THE CENTER OF THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN EXTREMELY DIFFICULT TO FIND IN CONVENTIONAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. AN AMBIGUITY ANALYSIS OF THE 0215 UTC QUIKSCAT PASS INDICATES THAT THE CIRCULATION IS QUITE SMALL AND THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NO HIGHER THAN ABOUT 25 KT. THE ENVIRONMENT AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS RATHER HOSTILE WITH STRONG SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES THEREFORE...IT IS FORECAST TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW WITHIN 12-24 HOURS. THE INITIAL MOTION IS ESTIMATED AT 280/12 AND A GENERAL WESTWARD TRACK IS EXPECTED UNTIL DISSIPATION IN A COUPLE OF DAYS. SEVERAL OF THE GLOBAL MODELS SUGGEST THAT THE REMNANT LOW COULD BE ABSORBED BY THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION SIX-E DURING THE NEXT 2-3 DAYS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 15/0900Z 16.2N 118.6W 25 KT 12HR VT 15/1800Z 16.5N 120.3W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 24HR VT 16/0600Z 16.7N 122.5W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 36HR VT 16/1800Z 16.5N 124.7W 25 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 17/0600Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BROWN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC