Tropical Depression FOUR-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP042007
200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007
 
THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE
SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP
CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CENTER SINCE ABOUT 09Z
THIS MORNING.  ON THIS BASIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL
DEPRESSION.  A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM
WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT.  

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY PASSING
A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE.  RIDGING AHEAD OF THE
DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW GENERALLY
WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS.  MODEL GUIDANCE IS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS
CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS.

THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES
FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH
OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING.  SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER
COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...NO SIGNIFICANT
STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED.  NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE
INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH STORM STRENGTH.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      09/2100Z 16.8N 119.0W    30 KT
 12HR VT     10/0600Z 17.4N 120.0W    30 KT
 24HR VT     10/1800Z 17.8N 121.2W    25 KT
 36HR VT     11/0600Z 18.4N 122.6W    25 KT
 48HR VT     11/1800Z 19.0N 124.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     12/1800Z 20.0N 127.5W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     13/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FRANKLIN
 
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