ZCZC MIATCDEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION FOUR-E DISCUSSION NUMBER 1 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP042007 200 PM PDT MON JUL 09 2007 THE AREA OF LOW PRESSURE SEVERAL HUNDRED MILES SOUTHWEST OF THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA HAS BEEN MAINTAINING DEEP CONVECTION IN THE GENERAL VICINITY OF THE CENTER SINCE ABOUT 09Z THIS MORNING. ON THIS BASIS...THE SYSTEM IS UPGRADED TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. A QUIKSCAT PASS THIS MORNING SUGGESTS THAT THE MAXIMUM WINDS ARE NEAR 30 KT. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 305/7...WITH THE DEPRESSION CURRENTLY PASSING A WEAKNESS IN THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. RIDGING AHEAD OF THE DEPRESSION IS EXPECTED TO KEEP THE CYCLONE ON A SLOW GENERALLY WEST-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK FOR THE NEXT FEW DAYS. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT ON THIS SCENARIO...AND THE OFFICIAL FORECAST IS CLOSE TO A BLEND OF THE GFDL AND HWRF MODELS. THE DEPRESSION IS POORLY ORGANIZED...WITH THE QUIKSCAT AMBIGUITIES FROM THIS MORNING SHOWING A SURFACE CIRCULATION CENTER TO THE SOUTH OF THE MID-LEVEL TURNING. SINCE THE SYSTEM WILL BE MOVING OVER COOLER WATERS WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS OR SO...NO SIGNIFICANT STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED. NONE OF THE GUIDANCE MODELS ARE INDICATING THAT THE SYSTEM WILL REACH STORM STRENGTH. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 09/2100Z 16.8N 119.0W 30 KT 12HR VT 10/0600Z 17.4N 120.0W 30 KT 24HR VT 10/1800Z 17.8N 121.2W 25 KT 36HR VT 11/0600Z 18.4N 122.6W 25 KT 48HR VT 11/1800Z 19.0N 124.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 12/1800Z 20.0N 127.5W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 13/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:56 UTC