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Tropical Depression INGRID


ZCZC MIAPWSAT3 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER  19      
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   AL082007               
0300 UTC MON SEP 17 2007                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION INGRID WAS LOCATED NEAR  
LATITUDE 17.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 59.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED    
WINDS NEAR 25 KTS...30 MPH...45 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   ATLANTIC STANDARD TIME (AST)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   EASTERN  DAYLIGHT TIME (EDT)...SUBTRACT 4 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
   CENTRAL  DAYLIGHT TIME (CDT)...SUBTRACT 5 HOURS FROM Z TIME      
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
GRAND TURK     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)
 
PONCE          34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)
 
SAN JUAN       34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
SAINT THOMAS   34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)
 
SAINT CROIX    34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAINT MAARTEN  34  X   2( 2)   6( 8)   4(12)   1(13)   1(14)   1(15)
 
ST KITTS-NEVIS 34  X   2( 2)   3( 5)   2( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   1(11)
 
BARBUDA        34  1   6( 7)   3(10)   1(11)   2(13)   X(13)   1(14)
BARBUDA        50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 
ANTIGUA        34  1   4( 5)   2( 7)   1( 8)   2(10)   X(10)   1(11)
 
GUADELOUPE     34  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
AVES           34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)
 
DOMINICA       34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z MON 00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N  605W 34  6   4(10)   1(11)   1(12)   1(13)   X(13)   1(14)
 12 176N  605W 50  1   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
 12 176N  605W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 24 180N  617W 34  2   8(10)   4(14)   2(16)   1(17)   X(17)   1(18)
 24 180N  617W 50  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 24 180N  617W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 36 187N  628W 34  X   4( 4)   6(10)   3(13)   3(16)   1(17)   X(17)
 36 187N  628W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 36 187N  628W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 48 193N  636W 34  X   1( 1)   5( 6)   5(11)   2(13)   2(15)   1(16)
 48 193N  636W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 48 193N  636W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 72 205N  650W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   5( 9)   3(12)   1(13)
 72 205N  650W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 72 205N  650W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 215N  660W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   5( 7)   3(10)   2(12)
 96 215N  660W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)
 96 215N  660W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 225N  670W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   4( 5)   3( 8)   1( 9)
120 225N  670W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)
120 225N  670W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     25     25      25      25      25      25      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER KNABB                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Friday, 02-Nov-2007 21:20:48 UTC