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Tropical Depression NINETEEN-E


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   2  
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP192006               
1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED   
NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM        
SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR.                    
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT  8 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P VALLARTA     34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
BARRA NAVIDAD  34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   1( 7)
 
MANZANILLO     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)
 
L CARDENAS     34  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   1( 4)   1( 5)   X( 5)
 
ZIHUATANEJO    34  X   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 
ISLAS MARIAS   34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 143N 1048W 34 48  16(64)   2(66)   X(66)   X(66)   X(66)   1(67)
 12 143N 1048W 50  5   4( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 143N 1048W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 153N 1056W 34  9  38(47)   6(53)   2(55)   1(56)   X(56)   1(57)
 24 153N 1056W 50  X   9( 9)   4(13)   X(13)   1(14)   X(14)   X(14)
 24 153N 1056W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 159N 1064W 34  1  22(23)  15(38)   5(43)   3(46)   1(47)   1(48)
 36 159N 1064W 50  X   3( 3)   6( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 36 159N 1064W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 162N 1072W 34  1   9(10)  16(26)   7(33)   5(38)   1(39)   1(40)
 48 162N 1072W 50  X   X( X)   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   X( 9)
 48 162N 1072W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 
 72 165N 1080W 34  X   4( 4)   9(13)   9(22)   7(29)   1(30)   X(30)
 72 165N 1080W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   X( 6)   1( 7)
 72 165N 1080W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 96 165N 1085W 34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   8(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
 96 165N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
 96 165N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 165N 1085W 34  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   8(17)   7(24)   1(25)   X(25)
120 165N 1085W 50  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)
120 165N 1085W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     45      45      45      40      30      25
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER PASCH                                                    
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Nov-2006 19:20:03 UTC