ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP192006 1500 UTC WED NOV 08 2006 AT 1500Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL DEPRESSION NINETEEN-E WAS LOCATED NEAR LATITUDE 13.6 NORTH...LONGITUDE 104.3 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED WINDS NEAR 30 KTS...35 MPH...55 KM/HR. CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)... ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)... ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)... FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE IP IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY) (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN 12Z WED AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY) PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH) PACIFIC STANDARD TIME (PST)...SUBTRACT 8 HOURS FROM Z TIME HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED LOCATIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - LOCATION KT P VALLARTA 34 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) X( 4) BARRA NAVIDAD 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) 1( 7) MANZANILLO 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 2( 4) 1( 5) 1( 6) X( 6) L CARDENAS 34 X 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) 1( 4) 1( 5) X( 5) ZIHUATANEJO 34 X 1( 1) X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) ISLA SOCORRO 34 X X( X) X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) 1( 7) ISLAS MARIAS 34 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - - FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM FROM TIME 12Z WED 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN PERIODS TO TO TO TO TO TO TO 00Z THU 12Z THU 00Z FRI 12Z FRI 12Z SAT 12Z SUN 12Z MON FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - HR POSITIONS KT 12 143N 1048W 34 48 16(64) 2(66) X(66) X(66) X(66) 1(67) 12 143N 1048W 50 5 4( 9) X( 9) 1(10) X(10) X(10) X(10) 12 143N 1048W 64 1 X( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 24 153N 1056W 34 9 38(47) 6(53) 2(55) 1(56) X(56) 1(57) 24 153N 1056W 50 X 9( 9) 4(13) X(13) 1(14) X(14) X(14) 24 153N 1056W 64 X 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 36 159N 1064W 34 1 22(23) 15(38) 5(43) 3(46) 1(47) 1(48) 36 159N 1064W 50 X 3( 3) 6( 9) 2(11) 2(13) X(13) X(13) 36 159N 1064W 64 X X( X) 2( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 48 162N 1072W 34 1 9(10) 16(26) 7(33) 5(38) 1(39) 1(40) 48 162N 1072W 50 X X( X) 4( 4) 4( 8) 1( 9) X( 9) X( 9) 48 162N 1072W 64 X X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) 1( 3) X( 3) X( 3) 72 165N 1080W 34 X 4( 4) 9(13) 9(22) 7(29) 1(30) X(30) 72 165N 1080W 50 X X( X) 2( 2) 2( 4) 2( 6) X( 6) 1( 7) 72 165N 1080W 64 X X( X) X( X) 1( 1) 1( 2) X( 2) X( 2) 96 165N 1085W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) 96 165N 1085W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 96 165N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) 120 165N 1085W 34 X 2( 2) 7( 9) 8(17) 7(24) 1(25) X(25) 120 165N 1085W 50 X X( X) 1( 1) 2( 3) 2( 5) X( 5) X( 5) 120 165N 1085W 64 X X( X) X( X) X( X) 1( 1) X( 1) X( 1) - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - - FCST MAX WIND 40 45 45 45 40 30 25 FORECAST HOUR (12) (24) (36) (48) (72) (96) (120) $$ FORECASTER PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Wednesday, 08-Nov-2006 19:20:03 UTC