Hurricane PAUL

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HURRICANE PAUL FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER   8
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
0300 UTC MON OCT 23 2006
 
AT 8 PM PDT...0300 UTC...THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A
HURRICANE WATCH FOR BAJA CALIFORNIA FROM CABO SAN LUCAS NORTHWARD
TO AGUA BLANCA ON THE WEST COAST...AND TO LA PAZ ON THE EAST COAST.
A HURRICANE WATCH MEANS THAT HURRICANE CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE
WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
A HURRICANE WATCH MAY BE REQUIRED FOR PORTIONS OF THE COAST OF
MAINLAND MEXICO ALONG THE SEA OF CORTES ON MONDAY.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.1W AT 23/0300Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  30 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE WEST OR 275 DEGREES AT   4 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  979 MB
EYE DIAMETER  15 NM
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  75 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT....... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 100SE 100SW 100NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 16.1N 111.1W AT 23/0300Z
AT 23/0000Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 16.0N 110.9W
 
FORECAST VALID 23/1200Z 17.2N 111.7W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  20SW  20NW.
50 KT... 35NE  35SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT... 75NE  75SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/0000Z 19.2N 111.8W
MAX WIND  85 KT...GUSTS 105 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  30SW  30NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 24/1200Z 21.3N 110.6W
MAX WIND  80 KT...GUSTS 100 KT.
64 KT... 20NE  20SE  15SW  15NW.
50 KT... 50NE  50SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE 100SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 25/0000Z 23.5N 109.0W
MAX WIND  70 KT...GUSTS  85 KT.
50 KT... 50NE  60SE  35SW  35NW.
34 KT...100NE 120SE  75SW  75NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 26/0000Z 27.5N 104.0W...INLAND
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 250 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 27/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 16.1N 111.1W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 23/0900Z
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
 
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