Tropical Storm PAUL

ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER   2
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP172006
800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO
BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED
CONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER
IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN
THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR.  T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH
TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE
CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY
SHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8
MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE
DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A
GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO
BE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL
IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED
BY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH
IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL.
 
PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY
OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO
DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND
TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A
RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING
FEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN
FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP
OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO.  THIS IS
CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO
THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL
WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE.
  
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W    35 KT
 12HR VT     22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W    45 KT
 36HR VT     23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W    50 KT
 48HR VT     23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W    60 KT
 72HR VT     24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W    65 KT
 96HR VT     25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W    30 KT...INLAND
120HR VT     26/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER AVILA
 
NNNN