ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM PAUL DISCUSSION NUMBER 2 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP172006 800 AM PDT SAT OCT 21 2006 SATELLITE IMAGES INDICATE THAT THE CLOUD PATTERN HAS CONTINUED TO BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND CONSISTS OF A CYCLONICALLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BAND ATTACHED TO AN AREA OF DEEP CONVECTION. THE CENTER IS STILL PARTIALLY EXPOSED AND IS LOCATED TO THE EAST OF THE MAIN THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY DUE TO EASTERLY SHEAR. T-NUMBERS FROM BOTH TAFB AND SAB ARE 2.5 ON THE DVORAK SCALE...SUGGESTING THAT THE CYCLONE HAS REACHED TROPICAL STORM STATUS. THIS IS CONFIRMED BY SHIP SFMN WHICH REPORTED 33 KNOTS AND A MINIMUM PRESSURE OF 1002.8 MB LOCATED JUST SOUTH OF THE CENTER. BASED ON THIS DATA THE DEPRESSION HAS BEEN UPGRADED TO TROPICAL STORM PAUL AT THIS TIME. A GRADUAL INTENSIFICATION IS EXPECTED SINCE THE SHEAR IS FORECAST TO BE LOW DURING THE NEXT TWO DAYS AND THE OCEAN IS PLENTY WARM. PAUL IS FORECAST TO BECOME A HURRICANE BUT NOT AS INTENSE AS INDICATED BY THE GFDL. ON THE OTHER HAND...GLOBAL MODELS ARE NOT DOING MUCH IN TERMS OF SIGNIFICANT INTENSIFICATION WITH PAUL. PAUL IS MOVING TOWARD THE WEST OR 270/8 KNOTS AROUND THE PERIPHERY OF A WELL-ESTABLISHED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. HOWEVER...IN ABOUT TWO DAYS...THE CYCLONE SHOULD REACH THE WESTERN EDGE OF THE RIDGE AND TURN GRADUALLY TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND NORTHWARD. THEREAFTER...A RATHER STRONG MID-LEVEL TROUGH SHOULD BECOME THE DOMINANT STEERING FEATURE...FORCING PAUL TO TURN TO THE NORTHEAST WITH AN INCREASE IN FORWARD SPEED. THIS TRACK SHOULD BRING PAUL NEAR THE SOUTHERN TIP OF BAJA CALIFORNIA AND THEN THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO. THIS IS CONSISTENT WITH MOST OF THE DYNAMICAL GUIDANCE AND VERY CLOSE TO THE FSU SUPERENSEMBLE. RELIABLE MODELS HAVE THE REMNANTS OF PAUL WELL INLAND OVER MEXICO BY DAY FIVE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 21/1500Z 16.0N 106.9W 35 KT 12HR VT 22/0000Z 16.1N 108.3W 40 KT 24HR VT 22/1200Z 16.2N 109.6W 45 KT 36HR VT 23/0000Z 16.5N 110.5W 50 KT 48HR VT 23/1200Z 17.5N 111.0W 60 KT 72HR VT 24/1200Z 21.0N 110.5W 65 KT 96HR VT 25/1200Z 26.0N 107.0W 30 KT...INLAND 120HR VT 26/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Saturday, 21-Oct-2006 14:40:03 UTC