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Tropical Storm NORMAN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   5           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
0300 UTC TUE OCT 10 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.9 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.8 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 45 KTS...50 MPH...85 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z TUE AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   X( 6)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
HUATABAMPO     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
LOS MOCHIS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA CLARION   34  1   4( 5)   3( 8)   2(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z TUE 12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z TUE 00Z WED 12Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI 00Z SAT 00Z SUN
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 176N 1178W 34 80   5(85)   1(86)   X(86)   1(87)   X(87)   X(87)
 12 176N 1178W 50 17   8(25)   1(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)   X(26)
 12 176N 1178W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 186N 1173W 34 26  34(60)   7(67)   1(68)   X(68)   X(68)   X(68)
 24 186N 1173W 50  2  15(17)   3(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)   X(20)
 24 186N 1173W 64  X   2( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 36 199N 1163W 34  2  15(17)  19(36)   5(41)   2(43)   X(43)   X(43)
 36 199N 1163W 50  X   2( 2)   7( 9)   1(10)   1(11)   X(11)   X(11)
 36 199N 1163W 64  X   X( X)   3( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 
 48 208N 1153W 34  1   4( 5)  12(17)   9(26)   4(30)   1(31)   X(31)
 48 208N 1153W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   2( 5)   1( 6)   X( 6)   X( 6)
 48 208N 1153W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 225N 1130W 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   5(10)   2(12)   X(12)
 72 225N 1130W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 72 225N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 250N 1105W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)
 96 250N 1105W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 250N 1105W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     50     50      45      40      25      20       0
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER RHOME/PASCH                                                   
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN