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Tropical Storm NORMAN


ZCZC MIAPWSEP5 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP152006               
2100 UTC MON OCT 09 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 2100Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM NORMAN WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 16.2 NORTH...LONGITUDE 117.9 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        18Z MON AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
ISLA CLARION   34  X   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   1( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       18Z MON 06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             06Z TUE 18Z TUE 06Z WED 18Z WED 18Z THU 18Z FRI 18Z SAT
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 169N 1181W 34 73   4(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
 12 169N 1181W 50 11   3(14)   1(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)   X(15)
 12 169N 1181W 64  1   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 177N 1180W 34 40  19(59)   3(62)   1(63)   X(63)   X(63)   X(63)
 24 177N 1180W 50  2   8(10)   2(12)   X(12)   X(12)   X(12)   1(13)
 24 177N 1180W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 186N 1178W 34  7  21(28)   9(37)   4(41)   1(42)   X(42)   X(42)
 36 186N 1178W 50  X   4( 4)   4( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)
 36 186N 1178W 64  X   X( X)   2( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 195N 1172W 34  1   7( 8)  10(18)   7(25)   3(28)   X(28)   1(29)
 48 195N 1172W 50  X   X( X)   2( 2)   3( 5)   X( 5)   X( 5)   1( 6)
 48 195N 1172W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 210N 1155W 34  X   1( 1)   2( 3)   4( 7)   5(12)   1(13)   1(14)
 72 210N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   X( 3)   X( 3)
 72 210N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 225N 1135W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   3( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)
 96 225N 1135W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 96 225N 1135W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
 
120 240N 1115W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   2( 4)
120 240N 1115W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
120 240N 1115W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     45     45      40      35      25      20      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER MAINELLI/FRANKLIN                                                 
                                                                    
                                                                    
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