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Tropical Storm MIRIAM


ZCZC MIAPWSEP4 ALL                                                  
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM                                                  
TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES NUMBER   4           
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP142006               
0300 UTC SUN SEP 17 2006                                            
                                                                    
AT 0300Z THE CENTER OF TROPICAL STORM MIRIAM WAS LOCATED NEAR       
LATITUDE 18.4 NORTH...LONGITUDE 114.4 WEST WITH MAXIMUM SUSTAINED   
WINDS NEAR 40 KTS...45 MPH...75 KM/HR.                              
                                                                    
CHANCES OF SUSTAINED (1-MINUTE AVERAGE) WIND SPEEDS OF AT LEAST     
   ...34 KT (39 MPH... 63 KPH)...                                   
   ...50 KT (58 MPH... 93 KPH)...                                   
   ...64 KT (74 MPH...119 KPH)...                                   
FOR LOCATIONS AND TIME PERIODS DURING THE NEXT 5 DAYS               
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES FOR LOCATIONS ARE GIVEN AS IP(CP) WHERE               
    IP  IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT BEGINNING DURING            
        AN INDIVIDUAL TIME PERIOD (INDIVIDUAL PROBABILITY)          
   (CP) IS THE PROBABILITY OF THE EVENT OCCURRING BETWEEN           
        00Z SUN AND THE FORECAST HOUR (CUMULATIVE PROBABILITY)      
                                                                    
PROBABILITIES ARE GIVEN IN PERCENT                                  
X INDICATES PROBABILITIES LESS THAN 0.5 PERCENT                     
LOCATIONS SHOWN WHEN THEIR TOTAL CUMULATED 5-DAY                    
   PROBABILITY IS AT LEAST 2.5 PERCENT                              
                                                                    
Z INDICATES COORDINATED UNIVERSAL TIME (GREENWICH)                  
   PACIFIC  DAYLIGHT TIME (PDT)...SUBTRACT  7 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
   HAWAIIAN STANDARD TIME (HST)...SUBTRACT 10 HOURS FROM Z TIME     
                                                                    
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR SELECTED  LOCATIONS - - - -  
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
LOCATION       KT                                                   
                                                                    
P ABREOJOS     34  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   1( 5)
 
CABO SAN LUCAS 34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   3( 7)   X( 7)   1( 8)
 
SAN JOSE CABO  34  X   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   2( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LA PAZ         34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   X( 7)
 
LORETO         34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)
 
CULICAN        34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   1( 3)   X( 3)
 
ISLA SOCORRO   34  1   4( 5)   4( 9)   2(11)   2(13)   X(13)   X(13)
 
ISLA CLARION   34 75   2(77)   1(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)   X(78)
ISLA CLARION   50  2   1( 3)   X( 3)   1( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 
                                                                    
  - - - - WIND SPEED PROBABILITIES FOR FORECAST POSITIONS - - - -   
                                                                    
               FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM    FROM 
  TIME       00Z SUN 12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU
PERIODS         TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO      TO  
             12Z SUN 00Z MON 12Z MON 00Z TUE 00Z WED 00Z THU 00Z FRI
                                                                    
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
- - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - - 
 HR POSITIONS  KT                                                   
                                                                    
 12 188N 1140W 34 42  18(60)   3(63)   1(64)   X(64)   X(64)   X(64)
 12 188N 1140W 50  5   3( 8)   1( 9)   X( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 12 188N 1140W 64  1   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 24 195N 1133W 34 10  26(36)  12(48)   2(50)   1(51)   X(51)   X(51)
 24 195N 1133W 50  1   5( 6)   3( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 24 195N 1133W 64  X   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 36 206N 1130W 34  2   9(11)  21(32)   5(37)   2(39)   1(40)   X(40)
 36 206N 1130W 50  X   1( 1)   6( 7)   2( 9)   1(10)   X(10)   X(10)
 36 206N 1130W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 48 216N 1131W 34  1   3( 4)  14(18)   9(27)   5(32)   X(32)   X(32)
 48 216N 1131W 50  X   X( X)   3( 3)   3( 6)   1( 7)   1( 8)   X( 8)
 48 216N 1131W 64  X   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)   X( 2)
 
 
 72 231N 1137W 34  X   1( 1)   3( 4)   6(10)   7(17)   2(19)   X(19)
 72 231N 1137W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   2( 2)   2( 4)   X( 4)   X( 4)
 72 231N 1137W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
 96 245N 1145W 34  X   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   5( 8)   3(11)   X(11)
 96 245N 1145W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   1( 2)   X( 2)
 96 245N 1145W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   X( 1)
 
 
120 260N 1155W 34  X   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)   2( 3)   2( 5)   2( 7)
120 260N 1155W 50  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   1( 1)
120 260N 1155W 64  X   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)   X( X)
 
               - - - - FORECAST INTENSITIES - - - -
FCST MAX WIND     40     40      45      40      35      25      20
FORECAST HOUR    (12)   (24)    (36)    (48)    (72)    (96)   (120)
 
                                                                    
$$                                                                  
FORECASTER FIORINO/STEWART                                           
                                                                    
                                                                    
NNNN                                                                


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Page last modified: Sunday, 17-Sep-2006 02:55:03 UTC