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Tropical Depression KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  16
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006
 
KRISTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION.  THE 02 SEP 1318Z QUIKSCAT
PASS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE NCEP RETRIEVALS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION
OPENING, THE FNMOC AND AMBIGUITY REVIEW SUPPORTS A CLOSED CENTER
WITH A FEW 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS.  FURTHER, THE MASS OF
CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS
ACCELERATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700 MB
WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION.  VISIBLE AND INFRARED
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTRUSION OF DRY, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER
AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER.  WHILE
WE EXPECT KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AN AREA OF
INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY RETARD THE DISSIPATION.

THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A MORE CONSISTENT SUTHEASTWARD
DIRECTION AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS...OUR FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER
THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL
CONSENSUS.  THE DYANMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS
UNUSUAL EASTERWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH FASTER.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/2100Z 18.3N 118.6W    30 KT
 12HR VT     03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 36HR VT     04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 48HR VT     04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/1800Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC