ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL DEPRESSION KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 16 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 PM PDT SAT SEP 02 2006 KRISTY WEAKENS TO A TROPICAL DEPRESSION. THE 02 SEP 1318Z QUIKSCAT PASS SHOWS THAT WHILE THE NCEP RETRIEVALS INDICATE THE CIRCULATION OPENING, THE FNMOC AND AMBIGUITY REVIEW SUPPORTS A CLOSED CENTER WITH A FEW 30 KT UNCONTAMINATED VECTORS. FURTHER, THE MASS OF CONVECTION SOUTHWEST OF THE CENTER HAS RAPIDLY WEAKEN AND IS ACCELERATING EASTWARD IN RESPONSE TO INCREASING 850-700 MB WESTERLIES SOUTH OF THE SURFACE CIRCULATION. VISIBLE AND INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES INTRUSION OF DRY, STABLE BOUNDARY LAYER AIR FROM THE NORTHWEST AND EASTERLY SHEAR OVER THE CENTER. WHILE WE EXPECT KRISTY TO BECOME A REMNANT LOW IN 24 HOURS...AN AREA OF INTERMITTENT CONVECTION MAY RETARD THE DISSIPATION. THE TROPICAL DEPRESSION IS MOVING IN A MORE CONSISTENT SUTHEASTWARD DIRECTION AT ABOUT 3 KNOTS...OUR FORECAST TRACK IS SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY AND IS CONSISTENT WITH THE MODEL CONSENSUS. THE DYANMICAL MODELS ARE IN GOOD AGREEMENT FOR THIS UNUSUAL EASTERWARD TRACK...ALTHOUGH FASTER. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/2100Z 18.3N 118.6W 30 KT 12HR VT 03/0600Z 18.1N 118.2W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/1800Z 17.9N 117.8W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 36HR VT 04/0600Z 17.6N 117.3W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 48HR VT 04/1800Z 17.3N 116.7W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/1800Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER FIORINO/AVILA NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC