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Tropical Storm KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  13
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT
SMALL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNDER INCREASING EAST TO
SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE JOHN.  THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK
CLASSIFICATIONS OF 35 TO 45 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
FURTHER AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF
DRYER AND STABLE AIR.   
 
KRISTY IS DRIFTING WEST...WITHIN A WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC
STEERING ENVIRONMENT.  WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND
LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO INFLUENCE A
GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS.  THE
NOGAPS CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMMEDIATE EASTWARD FUJIWARA CAPTURE
AND ABSORPTION WITH JOHN.  THIS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT
THE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SEEM TOO LARGE...AND
FOR THE OBVIOUS REASON THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY
WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS.  THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR
CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...WITH A
SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCING IN 24
HOURS.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      02/0300Z 19.0N 119.1W    40 KT
 12HR VT     02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W    30 KT
 24HR VT     03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W    25 KT
 36HR VT     03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     06/0000Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC