ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 13 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 800 PM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 VISIBLE AND ENHANCED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICT SMALL...INTERMITTENT...BURSTS OF CONVECTION OVER THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE TROPICAL CYCLONE...UNDER INCREASING EAST TO SOUTHEASTERLY SHEAR FROM AN OUTFLOW CHANNEL OF HURRICANE JOHN. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 40 KT IS BASED ON A BLEND OF DVORAK CLASSIFICATIONS OF 35 TO 45 KT. KRISTY IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN FURTHER AND DISSIPATE DUE TO INCREASING SHEAR AND ENTRAINMENT OF DRYER AND STABLE AIR. KRISTY IS DRIFTING WEST...WITHIN A WEAK LOW TO MID TROPOSPHERIC STEERING ENVIRONMENT. WITH THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS...THE DYNAMICAL MODELS INDICATE THAT A STRENGTHENING RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST AND LARGE SCALE LOW-LEVEL CYCLONIC FLOW WILL COMBINE TO INFLUENCE A GRADUAL TURN TO THE SOUTHWEST DURING THE NEXT 24-36 HOURS. THE NOGAPS CONTINUES TO REFLECT AN IMMEDIATE EASTWARD FUJIWARA CAPTURE AND ABSORPTION WITH JOHN. THIS IS DISCOUNTED DUE TO THE FACT THAT THE TROPICAL CYCLONES DEPICTED IN THE MODEL SEEM TOO LARGE...AND FOR THE OBVIOUS REASON THAT KRISTY HAS BEEN DRIFTING GENERALLY WESTWARD DURING THE PAST 24 HOURS. THE OFFICIAL FORECAST CALLS FOR CONTINUED WEAKENING AND DISSIPATION IN 4 DAYS...WITH A SOUTHWESTWARD DRIFT IN THE WEAK LOW-LEVEL FLOW COMMENCING IN 24 HOURS. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 02/0300Z 19.0N 119.1W 40 KT 12HR VT 02/1200Z 19.0N 119.3W 30 KT 24HR VT 03/0000Z 19.0N 119.7W 25 KT 36HR VT 03/1200Z 18.9N 120.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 04/0000Z 18.8N 120.4W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 05/0000Z 18.6N 120.8W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 06/0000Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER ROBERTS/BEVEN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC