Tropical Storm KRISTY

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TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006
 
A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0109Z LOCATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY SOUTH
OF 19N SO THE PREVIOUS TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD.
INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS SHOWING AN
INCREASE IN CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM
LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION.  THE CLOUD MASS IS ALSO BECOMING LESS
ORGANIZED.  WHILE SHEARING IS NOT EVIDENT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS
BECOMING DEFORMED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS.  KRISTY
HAS APPARENTLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. 
CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT AS A RESULT.  SATELLITE
INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 65 KT WITH T-NUMBERS
RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF
THE T AND CI NUMBERS.
 
A NORTHWEST MOTION CONTINUES AT 310/6.  MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL
RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST.  A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AHEAD OF HURRICANE
JOHN WILL TEND TO PUSH KRISTY SOUTHWESTWARD...IF IT MANAGES TO
MAINTAIN A DEEP CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY.
THE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 36-48 HOURS AND LACKING
MUCH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST AIDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP
THE FORECAST TRACK VERY SLOW IN THE DAY 3-5 TIME FRAME.
 
COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN
AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AT LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED
TO CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND NOW OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO
CONTINUE.
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      01/0900Z 19.3N 118.1W    60 KT
 12HR VT     01/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W    50 KT
 24HR VT     02/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W    40 KT
 36HR VT     02/1800Z 20.2N 120.1W    35 KT
 48HR VT     03/0600Z 20.2N 120.6W    30 KT
 72HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    25 KT
 96HR VT     05/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
120HR VT     06/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL
 
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