ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT FRI SEP 01 2006 A WINDSAT MICROWAVE PASS AT 0109Z LOCATED THE CENTER OF KRISTY SOUTH OF 19N SO THE PREVIOUS TRACK HAS BEEN ADJUSTED SLIGHTLY SOUTHWARD. INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY OVER THE PAST 6 HOURS IS SHOWING AN INCREASE IN CLOUD-TOP TEMPERATURES NEAR THE CENTER AS THE SYSTEM LOSES ITS DEEP CONVECTION. THE CLOUD MASS IS ALSO BECOMING LESS ORGANIZED. WHILE SHEARING IS NOT EVIDENT...THE CLOUD PATTERN IS BECOMING DEFORMED AND ELONGATED ALONG A NORTH-SOUTH AXIS. KRISTY HAS APPARENTLY PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND IS STARTING TO WEAKEN. CURRENT INTENSITY HAS BEEN LOWERED TO 60 KT AS A RESULT. SATELLITE INTENSITY ESTIMATES WERE IN GOOD AGREEMENT AT 65 KT WITH T-NUMBERS RANGING FROM 3.0 TO 3.5...AND THE ADVISORY INTENSITY IS A BLEND OF THE T AND CI NUMBERS. A NORTHWEST MOTION CONTINUES AT 310/6. MODEL GUIDANCE SHOWS A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT THE NEXT 3 DAYS WITH A BREAK IN THE MID-LEVEL RIDGE TO THE NORTHWEST. A STRENGTHENING RIDGE AHEAD OF HURRICANE JOHN WILL TEND TO PUSH KRISTY SOUTHWESTWARD...IF IT MANAGES TO MAINTAIN A DEEP CIRCULATION...WHICH IS NOW LOOKING LESS LIKELY. THE FORECAST MODEL GUIDANCE DIVERGES AFTER 36-48 HOURS AND LACKING MUCH OF A CONSENSUS IN THE FORECAST AIDS WE WILL CONTINUE TO KEEP THE FORECAST TRACK VERY SLOW IN THE DAY 3-5 TIME FRAME. COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES...INCREASED VERTICAL SHEAR FROM JOHN AND THE ENTRAINMENT OF MORE STABLE AIR AT LOWER LEVELS ARE EXPECTED TO CAUSE THE WEAKENING TREND NOW OBSERVED IN SATELLITE IMAGERY TO CONTINUE. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 01/0900Z 19.3N 118.1W 60 KT 12HR VT 01/1800Z 19.6N 118.7W 50 KT 24HR VT 02/0600Z 20.0N 119.5W 40 KT 36HR VT 02/1800Z 20.2N 120.1W 35 KT 48HR VT 03/0600Z 20.2N 120.6W 30 KT 72HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 25 KT 96HR VT 05/0600Z 19.5N 121.5W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 120HR VT 06/0600Z 19.0N 122.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL NNNN
Alternate Formats
About Alternates -
E-Mail Advisories -
RSS Feeds
Cyclone Forecasts
Latest Advisory -
Past Advisories -
About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
Latest Products -
About Marine Products
Tools & Data
Satellite Imagery -
US Weather Radar -
Aircraft Recon -
Local Data Archive -
Forecast Verification -
Deadliest/Costliest/Most Intense
Learn About Hurricanes
Storm Names
Wind Scale -
Prepare -
Climatology -
NHC Glossary -
NHC Acronyms -
Frequently Asked Questions -
AOML Hurricane-Research Division
About Us
About NHC -
Mission/Vision -
Other NCEP Centers -
NHC Staff -
Visitor Information -
NHC Library
NOAA/
National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida, 33165-2149 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Privacy Policy
Credits
About Us
Glossary
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC