Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane KRISTY


ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER   6
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP122006
200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006
 
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE
CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL
DENSE OVERCAST.  CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM
WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES
CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE.  T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB...
4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA.  THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT
AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF
SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT
0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING
UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST.
 
INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5.  KRISTY AND HURRICANE
JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE. 
AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO
CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE.  IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE
KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT
ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER
CIRCULATION OF JOHN.  THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO
THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND
SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE.
 
FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE
SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26
CELSIUS.  THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE
SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF
80 KT.  BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH
THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY
INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN.
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W    65 KT
 12HR VT     31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W    75 KT
 24HR VT     01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W    80 KT
 36HR VT     01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W    75 KT
 48HR VT     02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W    65 KT
 72HR VT     03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W    50 KT
 96HR VT     04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W    40 KT
120HR VT     05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W    30 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC