ZCZC MIATCDEP2 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE KRISTY DISCUSSION NUMBER 6 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP122006 200 AM PDT THU AUG 31 2006 SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE DEEP CONVECTION CONSOLIDATING AROUND THE CENTER WHILE LOSING ITS CONVECTIVE BANDING IN FAVOR OF A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST. CIRRUS OUTFLOW INDICATES A NEARLY CIRCULAR SYSTEM WITH VERY LITTLE EVIDENCE OF UPPER-LEVEL SHEAR. INTENSITY ESTIMATES CONTINUE TO SHOW A STEADY INCREASE. T-NUMBERS WERE 4.0 FROM SAB... 4.5 FROM TAFB...AND 3.5 FROM AFWA. THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 65 KT AND AN UPGRADE TO HURRICANE STATUS IS BASED ON AN AVERAGE OF SATELLITE-DERIVED INTENSITIES AND A PAIR OF MICROWAVE PASSES AT 0200 AND 0330 UTC WHICH INDICATED AN EYEWALL COULD BE DEVELOPING UNDER THE DENSE OVERCAST. INITIAL MOTION IS STILL SLOW...ABOUT 315/5. KRISTY AND HURRICANE JOHN ARE CURRENTLY ABOUT 600 NM APART AT NEARLY THE SAME LATITUDE. AT THIS DISTANCE...SOME EVENTUAL INTERACTION BETWEEN THE TWO CYCLONES IS POSSIBLE. IF A BINARY INTERACTION OCCURS...BECAUSE KRISTY IS THE SMALLER OF THE TWO IT WILL BE MORE LIKELY TO EXHIBIT ERRATIC AND SLOW MOTION...PROBABLY WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED SHEAR...AND PERHAPS EVENTUALLY BE ABSORBED INTO THE LARGER CIRCULATION OF JOHN. THE NEW OFFICIAL TRACK FORECAST IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY EXCEPT FOR A SLOWER FORWARD SPEED...AND SUGGESTED BY NEARLY ALL OF THE DYNAMICAL TRACK GUIDANCE. FURTHER STRENGTHENING IS EXPECTED FOR THE NEXT 24 HOURS...WHILE THE SHEAR REMAINS WEAK AND KRISTY REMAINS OVER SSTS EXCEEDING 26 CELSIUS. THE NEW OFFICIAL INTENSITY FORECAST IS A LITTLE ABOVE THE SHIPS AND FSU SUPERENSEMBLE GUIDANCE...SHOWING A PEAK INTENSITY OF 80 KT. BEYOND THAT TIME KRISTY SHOULD START TO WEAKEN...ALTHOUGH THE FUTURE INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHLY UNCERTAIN AND DEPENDENT ANY INTERACTION WITH HURRICANE JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 31/0900Z 17.6N 116.1W 65 KT 12HR VT 31/1800Z 18.2N 116.9W 75 KT 24HR VT 01/0600Z 18.9N 117.9W 80 KT 36HR VT 01/1800Z 19.5N 119.1W 75 KT 48HR VT 02/0600Z 19.9N 120.0W 65 KT 72HR VT 03/0600Z 20.0N 121.0W 50 KT 96HR VT 04/0600Z 20.0N 121.5W 40 KT 120HR VT 05/0600Z 20.0N 122.0W 30 KT $$ FORECASTER KNABB/MUNDELL NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:44 UTC