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Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIATCMEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN FORECAST/ADVISORY NUMBER  21
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
1500 UTC SAT SEP 02 2006
 
A HURRICANE WARNING IS IN EFFECT ALONG COAST OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA
PENINSULA FROM MULEGE SOUTHWARD ALONG THE EAST COAST...AND FROM
PUNTA ABREOJOS SOUTHWARD ALONG THE WEST COAST.  PREPARATIONS TO
PROTECT LIFE AND PROPERTY SHOULD BE COMPLETED.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WARNING REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE EAST COAST
OF THE BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF MULEGE TO BAHIA SAN JUAN
BAUTISTA.  A TROPICAL STORM WARNING MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE EXPECTED WITHIN THE WARNING AREA WITHIN THE NEXT 24
HOURS.
 
A TROPICAL STORM WATCH REMAINS IN EFFECT FOR THE WEST COAST OF THE
BAJA CALIFORNIA PENINSULA NORTH OF PUNTA ABREOJOS TO PUNTA
EUGENIA...AND FOR THE COAST OF MAINLAND MEXICO FROM ALTATA TO
GUAYMAS.  A TROPICAL STORM WATCH MEANS THAT TROPICAL STORM
CONDITIONS ARE POSSIBLE WITHIN THE WATCH AREA...GENERALLY
WITHIN 36 HOURS.
 
INTERESTS ELSEWHERE IN AND NEAR THE GULF OF CALIFORNIA...BAJA
CALIFORNIA....AND NORTHWESTERN MEXICO SHOULD MONITOR THE PROGRESS
OF JOHN.
 
HURRICANE CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.8W AT 02/1500Z
POSITION ACCURATE WITHIN  20 NM
 
PRESENT MOVEMENT TOWARD THE NORTHWEST OR 320 DEGREES AT   8 KT
 
ESTIMATED MINIMUM CENTRAL PRESSURE  980 MB
MAX SUSTAINED WINDS  70 KT WITH GUSTS TO  90 KT.
64 KT....... 20NE  20SE   0SW  15NW.
50 KT....... 40NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT....... 75NE  60SE  25SW  30NW.
12 FT SEAS..150NE 175SE   0SW   0NW.
WINDS AND SEAS VARY GREATLY IN EACH QUADRANT.  RADII IN NAUTICAL
MILES ARE THE LARGEST RADII EXPECTED ANYWHERE IN THAT QUADRANT.
 
REPEAT...CENTER LOCATED NEAR 24.5N 110.8W AT 02/1500Z
AT 02/1200Z CENTER WAS LOCATED NEAR 24.2N 110.5W
 
FORECAST VALID 03/0000Z 25.3N 111.6W...INLAND
MAX WIND  55 KT...GUSTS  65 KT.
50 KT... 40NE  30SE  15SW  20NW.
34 KT... 75NE  60SE  25SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 03/1200Z 26.4N 112.7W...INLAND
MAX WIND  40 KT...GUSTS  50 KT.
34 KT... 60NE  60SE  30SW  30NW.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/0000Z 27.5N 113.8W...INLAND
MAX WIND  30 KT...GUSTS  40 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 04/1200Z 28.5N 115.0W...DISSIPATING
MAX WIND  25 KT...GUSTS  35 KT.
 
FORECAST VALID 05/1200Z 29.5N 117.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
EXTENDED OUTLOOK. NOTE...ERRORS FOR TRACK HAVE AVERAGED NEAR 200 NM
ON DAY 4 AND 225 NM ON DAY 5...AND FOR INTENSITY NEAR 20 KT EACH DAY
 
OUTLOOK VALID 06/1200Z 29.5N 119.0W...REMNANT LOW
MAX WIND  20 KT...GUSTS  25 KT.
 
OUTLOOK VALID 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
REQUEST FOR 3 HOURLY SHIP REPORTS WITHIN 300 MILES OF 24.5N 110.8W
 
NEXT ADVISORY AT 02/2100Z
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/AVILA
 
 
NNNN


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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC