Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Tropical Storm JOHN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  25
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006

JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER
WESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM WITH ALMOST ALL OF
THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MEXICAN NAVY
STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 996.1 MB
AND 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE
DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE
TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE
MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS...
IF NOT SOONER.
 
JOHN IS MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 325/8. THE TRACK FORECAST
ISN'T EASY THIS MORNING WITH THE SAME PROBLEMS FOR THE LAST COUPLE
OF DAYS PERSISTING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHEN THE
LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOHN WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL
CENTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN
INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED
STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS SHOW A
MORE RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD TURN IN A DAY OR SO
FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... THE
MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A GOOD TOOL TO SMOOTH THROUGH THESE
DIFFERENCES AND HAS VERIFIED WELL. THEREFORE.. THE OFFICIAL IS
NUDGED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL
CONSENSUS. 

REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE
SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL
MOISTURE FROM JOHN.   
 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      03/1500Z 27.1N 112.5W    40 KT...INLAND
 12HR VT     04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W    35 KT...INLAND
 24HR VT     04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W    30 KT...INLAND
 36HR VT     05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W    25 KT...DISSIPATING
 48HR VT     05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 72HR VT     06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W    20 KT...REMNANT LOW
 96HR VT     07/1200Z...DISSIPATED
 
$$
FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC