ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM TROPICAL STORM JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 25 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 800 AM PDT SUN SEP 03 2006 JOHN CONTINUES TO PRODUCE CONVECTION NEAR THE CENTER. HOWEVER WESTERLY SHEAR IS TAKING A TOLL ON THE SYSTEM WITH ALMOST ALL OF THE THUNDERSTORM ACTIVITY IN THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. A MEXICAN NAVY STATION AT SANTA ROSALIA RECENTLY REPORTED A PRESSURE OF 996.1 MB AND 34 KT SUSTAINED WINDS... SO THE INITIAL INTENSITY WILL BE DECREASED ONLY SLIGHTLY TO 40 KT. CONTINUED WEAKENING IS LIKELY DUE TO THE HIGH TERRAIN OF BAJA CALIFORNIA IN COMBINATION WITH THE MODERATE WESTERLY SHEAR. DISSIPATION IS LIKELY IN ABOUT 36 HOURS... IF NOT SOONER. JOHN IS MOVING ABOUT THE SAME AS BEFORE... 325/8. THE TRACK FORECAST ISN'T EASY THIS MORNING WITH THE SAME PROBLEMS FOR THE LAST COUPLE OF DAYS PERSISTING. THE BIG QUESTION REMAINS EXACTLY WHEN THE LOW-LEVEL CENTER OF JOHN WILL DECOUPLE FROM THE MIDDLE-LEVEL CENTER. THE NOGAPS AND UKMET SUGGEST THE CIRCULATION WILL REMAIN INTACT ENOUGH TO TAKE THE SYSTEM INTO THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A WEAKENING DEPRESSION. HOWEVER THE ECMWF/GFDL/GFS SHOW A MORE RAPIDLY DECAYING SYSTEM AND A WESTWARD TURN IN A DAY OR SO FOLLOWING THE LOW-LEVEL REMNANT. OVER THE PAST FEW DAYS... THE MODEL CONSENSUS HAS BEEN A GOOD TOOL TO SMOOTH THROUGH THESE DIFFERENCES AND HAS VERIFIED WELL. THEREFORE.. THE OFFICIAL IS NUDGED NORTHWARD IN BETWEEN THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND MODEL CONSENSUS. REGARDLESS OF THE TRACK... LOCALLY HEAVY RAINS ARE POSSIBLE OVER THE SOUTHWESTERN UNITED STATES AS A RESULT OF MIDDLE TO UPPER-LEVEL MOISTURE FROM JOHN. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 03/1500Z 27.1N 112.5W 40 KT...INLAND 12HR VT 04/0000Z 28.0N 113.3W 35 KT...INLAND 24HR VT 04/1200Z 28.9N 114.1W 30 KT...INLAND 36HR VT 05/0000Z 29.8N 115.1W 25 KT...DISSIPATING 48HR VT 05/1200Z 30.2N 116.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 72HR VT 06/1200Z 30.5N 118.0W 20 KT...REMNANT LOW 96HR VT 07/1200Z...DISSIPATED $$ FORECASTER BLAKE/FRANKLIN NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC