Skip Navigation Links weather.gov   
NOAA logo - Click to go to the NOAA homepage National Weather Service   NWS logo - Click to go to the NWS homepage
National Hurricane Center
Local forecast by
"City, St" or "ZIP"

 
Alternate Formats
   Text     |   Mobile
   Email   |   RSS XML/RSS logo
   About Alternates
Cyclone Forecasts
   Latest Advisory
   Past Advisories
   Audio/Podcasts
   About Advisories
Marine Forecasts
   Atlantic & E Pacific
   Gridded Marine
   About Marine
Tools & Data
   Satellite | Radar
   Analysis Tools
   Aircraft Recon
   GIS Datasets
   Data Archive
Development
   Experimental
   Research
   Forecast Accuracy
Outreach & Education
   Prepare
   Storm Surge
   About Cyclones
   Cyclone Names
   Wind Scale
   Most Extreme
   Forecast Models
   Breakpoints
   Resources
   Glossary | Acronyms
   Frequent Questions
Our Organization
   About NHC
   Mission & Vision
   Staff | Q&A
   Visitors | Virtual Tour
   Library Branch
   NCEP | Newsletter
Contact Us
   Comments
Follow the National Hurricane Center on Facebook Follow the National Hurricane Center on Twitter
Subscribe the National Hurricane Center on YouTube Read the National Hurricane Center Inside the Eye blog on WordPress
FirstGov.gov is the U.S. Government's official Web portal to all Federal, state and local government Web resources and services.
 
 

Hurricane JOHN


ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL
TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM
HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER  10
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006
 
JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON.
VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JOHN IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 1520 UTC
SSMI MICROWAVE PASS.  BOTH THE OCCURRENCE AND TIME SCALE OF THESE
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT.  IN
ANY EVENT...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE
HURRICANE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART
OF THE FORECAST PERIOD.  SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ONCE
THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT HAS ENDED.  THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A
LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS.  THE
ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE INTERACTION WITH
LAND. 

THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS
ADVISORY.  THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME. 
JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AROUND THE
SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER
NORTHERN MEXICO...PARALLEL TO BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST
OF MEXICO. ONLY A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER
ASHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. 

THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH OVER PORTIONS
OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM
WATCH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO.  

THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE
INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 1800 UTC. 
 
FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      30/2100Z 17.4N 103.3W   115 KT
 12HR VT     31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W   115 KT
 24HR VT     31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W   125 KT
 36HR VT     01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W   125 KT
 48HR VT     01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W   120 KT
 72HR VT     02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W   105 KT
 96HR VT     03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W    90 KT
120HR VT     04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W    70 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH
 
NNNN


Quick Navigation Links:
Tropical Cyclone Forecasts  -  Tropical Marine Forecasts  -  Data Archive
Outreach  -  Prepare  -  About Cyclones  -  About NHC  -  Contact Us

NOAA/ National Weather Service
National Centers for Environmental Prediction
National Hurricane Center
11691 SW 17th Street
Miami, Florida 33165 USA
nhcwebmaster@noaa.gov
Disclaimer
Credits
Information Quality
Glossary
Privacy Policy
Freedom of Information Act (FOIA)
About Us
Career Opportunities
Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC