ZCZC MIATCDEP1 ALL TTAA00 KNHC DDHHMM HURRICANE JOHN DISCUSSION NUMBER 10 NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL EP112006 200 PM PDT WED AUG 30 2006 JOHN REMAINS A DANGEROUS CATEGORY FOUR HURRICANE THIS AFTERNOON. VISIBLE IMAGERY SUGGESTS THAT JOHN IS UNDERGOING A CONCENTRIC EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE...AND THIS WAS ALSO EVIDENT ON A 1520 UTC SSMI MICROWAVE PASS. BOTH THE OCCURRENCE AND TIME SCALE OF THESE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLES ARE ALMOST IMPOSSIBLE TO PREDICT. IN ANY EVENT...CONSIDERING THE CURRENT INNER-CORE STRUCTURE OF THE HURRICANE...NO CHANGE IN INTENSITY IS INDICATED FOR THE EARLY PART OF THE FORECAST PERIOD. SOME INCREASE IN STRENGTH IS POSSIBLE ONCE THE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT HAS ENDED. THE HURRICANE WILL REMAIN IN A LOW SHEAR AND WARM WATER ENVIRONMENT FOR THE NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ONLY INHIBITING FACTOR WOULD APPEAR TO BE THE INTERACTION WITH LAND. THE INITIAL MOTION IS 310/12...A LITTLE FASTER THAN IN THE PREVIOUS ADVISORY. THE FORECAST TRACK IS ESSENTIALLY AN UPDATE OF THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...AND THE REASONING IS BASICALLY THE SAME. JOHN SHOULD CONTINUE TO MOVE TOWARD THE NORTHWEST AND AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A MIDDLE- TO UPPER-LEVEL RIDGE OVER NORTHERN MEXICO...PARALLEL TO BUT VERY CLOSE TO THE SOUTHWEST COAST OF MEXICO. ONLY A SLIGHT WOBBLE TO THE RIGHT COULD BRING THE CENTER ASHORE IN THE HURRICANE WARNING AREA. THE GOVERNMENT OF MEXICO HAS ISSUED A HURRICANE WATCH OVER PORTIONS OF THE SOUTHERN BAJA PENINSULA...AND EXTENDED THE TROPICAL STORM WATCH OVER MAINLAND MEXICO. THE UNITED STATES AIR FORCE RECONNAISSANCE AIRCRAFT WILL BE INVESTIGATING THE HURRICANE TOMORROW AT 1800 UTC. FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS INITIAL 30/2100Z 17.4N 103.3W 115 KT 12HR VT 31/0600Z 18.6N 104.7W 115 KT 24HR VT 31/1800Z 20.4N 106.5W 125 KT 36HR VT 01/0600Z 21.8N 107.9W 125 KT 48HR VT 01/1800Z 22.8N 109.5W 120 KT 72HR VT 02/1800Z 24.0N 112.5W 105 KT 96HR VT 03/1800Z 24.5N 115.5W 90 KT 120HR VT 04/1800Z 24.5N 119.0W 70 KT $$ FORECASTER MAINELLI/PASCH NNNN
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Page last modified: Monday, 11-Sep-2006 11:28:43 UTC