Tropical Depression ELEVEN-E

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TROPICAL DEPRESSION ELEVEN-E DISCUSSION NUMBER   1
NWS TPC/NATIONAL HURRICANE CENTER MIAMI FL   EP112006
800 AM PDT MON AUG 28 2006
 
...CORRECTED FOR AWIPS BIN NUMBER IN FIRST LINE ABOVE...

SATELLITE CLASSIFICATIONS FROM TAFB AND SAB HAVE BEEN 2.5 OR 35 KT
AT BOTH 06 AND 12Z AND BANDING IN THE SYSTEM HAS INCREASED SINCE
12Z.  THUS ADVISORIES ARE BEING INITIATED AT THIS TIME AS A 30 KT
TROPICAL DEPRESSION...THOUGH THE SYSTEM MAY ALREADY BE CLOSE TO
TROPICAL STORM INTENSITY.
 
INITIAL MOTION ESTIMATE IS AT 305/8...WHICH IS SOMEWHAT UNCERTAIN
DUE THE SCATTER IN THE VARIOUS POSITION ESTIMATES.  DESPITE
THE INITIAL MOTION TOWARD THE NORTHWEST...MODEL GUIDANCE IS ALL IN
AGREEMENT THAT THE DEVELOPING SYSTEM SHOULD TURN TOWARD THE
WEST-NORTHWEST IN THE NEAR TERM...UNDER THE INFLUENCE OF A
DEEP-LAYER RIDGE OVER NORTHEAST MEXICO.  THE RIDGE IS NOT
ANTICIPATED TO BE VERY STRONG FROM 36 TO 96 HOURS...THE GUIDANCE
SUGGESTS A SLIGHT TURN TOWARD THE RIGHT WITH A NORTHWEST TRACK
PARALLELING THE MEXICAN COAST AT THOSE TIMES.  AT DAY 5...IT IS
ANTICIPATED THAT A WEAKENING SYSTEM WILL BEND BACK TO THE
WEST-NORTHWEST BEING STEERED BY THE LOWER TROPOSPHERIC FLOW.  THE
FORECAST TRACK FOLLOWS THE CONSENSUS OF THE DYNAMICAL
MODELS...EXCEPT THE NOGAPS MODEL WHICH LOSES THE SYSTEM AFTER 36
HOURS.
 
DUE TO LOW VERTICAL SHEAR...VERY WARM WATERS...ABUNDANT MOISTURE AND
WELL-ESTABLISHED CONVECTIVE FEATURES...STEADY INTENSIFICATION
SHOULD OCCUR FOR THIS SYSTEM OVER THE NEXT THREE DAYS AS SUGGESTED
BY BOTH GFDL AND SHIPS INTENSITY GUIDANCE.  AFTER DAY 3...THE WATER
TEMPERATURES DROP AND THE ATMOSPHERE BECOMES MORE STABLE...
SUGGESTING WEAKENING ON DAYS 4 AND 5.

INTERESTS ALONG THE WEST COAST OF MEXICO FROM PUERTO ANGEL TO LA
FORTUNA SHOULD CLOSELY MONITOR THE PROGRESS OF THIS SYSTEM.

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS
 
INITIAL      28/1500Z 13.2N  95.7W    30 KT
 12HR VT     29/0000Z 13.6N  97.3W    40 KT
 24HR VT     29/1200Z 14.1N  99.1W    50 KT
 36HR VT     30/0000Z 14.7N 100.9W    60 KT
 48HR VT     30/1200Z 15.9N 102.8W    70 KT
 72HR VT     31/1200Z 19.0N 108.0W    80 KT
 96HR VT     01/1200Z 21.0N 112.0W    70 KT
120HR VT     02/1200Z 22.0N 115.0W    50 KT
 
$$
FORECASTER PASCH/LANDSEA
 
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